spatial density
Where the next week’s or month’s aftershocks fall. Every model outputs a density over the same 2 km grid, normalised to one; the score is the mean log density at the epicentres that followed. The reference is an adaptive kernel density estimate of past epicentres.
pooled over sequences
Per-event spatial information gain over the adaptive kernel estimate, 95% interval resampling sequences.
modelestimate [95% interval]
Cell GBM6 of 14 sequences above adaptive KDE+0.045 [−0.019, +0.106]
KDE (fixed bandwidth)1 of 14 sequences above adaptive KDE−0.101 [−0.143, −0.066]
ETAS kernel0 of 14 sequences above adaptive KDE−0.768 [−0.906, −0.612]
Uniform0 of 14 sequences above adaptive KDE−2.496 [−2.683, −2.316]
per sequence
| sequence | Uniform | KDE (fixed bandwidth) | ETAS kernel | Cell GBM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landers 1992 | −2.192 | −0.156 | −0.772 | −0.062 |
| Hector Mine 1999 | −2.802 | −0.085 | −1.192 | −0.020 |
| Ridgecrest 2019 | −2.675 | −0.052 | −1.001 | −0.070 |
| Northridge 1994 | −2.993 | −0.065 | −1.180 | −0.021 |
| El Mayor–Cucapah 2010 | −2.026 | +0.018 | −1.267 | −0.027 |
| Loma Prieta 1989 | −2.279 | −0.183 | −0.528 | +0.161 |
| San Simeon 2003 | −3.268 | −0.097 | −0.596 | −0.021 |
| South Napa 2014 | −1.765 | −0.731 | −0.375 | −0.094 |
| Parkfield 2004 | −2.747 | −0.134 | −0.915 | +0.125 |
| L’Aquila 2009 | −2.496 | −0.077 | −0.032 | +0.155 |
| Amatrice 2016 | −2.645 | −0.034 | −0.752 | +0.046 |
| Norcia 2016 | −2.230 | −0.065 | −0.776 | +0.187 |
| Darfield 2010 | −2.522 | −0.145 | −0.684 | −0.053 |
| Kaikōura 2016 | −1.410 | −0.064 | −1.384 | +0.078 |
landers 1992
Day 30, next 7 days; 100 epicentres followed.
KDE (adaptive)
ETAS kernel
Cell GBM
hector mine 1999
Day 30, next 7 days; 22 epicentres followed.
KDE (adaptive)
ETAS kernel
Cell GBM
ridgecrest 2019
Day 30, next 7 days; 108 epicentres followed.
KDE (adaptive)
ETAS kernel
Cell GBM